The Jaden Ivey Draft Profile
The Jaden Ivey Draft Profile
Mid Post Draft Profiles - How Ivey Might Fit on the Sacramento Kings
The first thing you, dear reader, need to know about me is that I’m a Sacramento Kings fan. I was born into this morass of mediocrity. Though it’s worse than mediocrity; mediocrity is making the playoffs sometimes. You probably know the Kings haven’t made the playoffs in sixteen seasons. And that’s fine. I’ll assuredly vent about it in future newsletters.
But Who is Jaden Ivey?
Jaden Ivey is a basketball player first and foremost. You kind of have to be considered draftable to be a top-four pick in the NBA and boy is Ivey draftable. He is a second-year guard out of Purdue University, a powerful guard with elite speed, explosiveness, and finishing ability around the hoop. His elite tools make him an instant draw on the court, someone that makes you move to the edge of your seat, eager for another gravity-defying set of acrobatics throughout a game. This might be open for debate, but I consider him the best athlete in the draft.
That wild first step reminds talking heads of the elite point guard du jour, Ja Morant. And it makes sense, as Ivey and Morant have shared much of their tutelage under Ivey’s mom, Niele Ivey. (For reference, Niele is an ex-WNBA player and is the head coach of the Notre Dame women’s basketball team, one of the strongest women’s programs in college.) The children of coaches tend to be smart players that stick around.
Ivey doesn’t have the elite playmaking chops of Morant, but he has that same silky glide around the court, seemingly making a defender wade in a vat of Crisco while he glides along on Teflon. He takes long strides and seems to have a better sense of balance on drives, rarely taking the level of contact that makes my jaw drop one possession and wince in fear of injury the next. Ivey is almost calming in comparison; cool, collected, and seemingly in control of his domain.
Key Stats
49% - Ivey shot 49% in his sophomore shooting off screens, whether taking a dribble or not. He is active cutting off the ball despite often working with one or two post players on the court at once. That type of verve with surprising slipperiness bodes in regard to his ability to create advantages against set defenses, even without consistent off-ball shooting ability.
1.2:1 - An assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.2:1 isn’t ideal for a player people project favorably to a lead guard. The more obvious point guards in the class are better at protecting the ball and decision-making as far as turnovers are concerned. If you think highly of Ivey, you might compare this to Donovan Mitchell coming out of Louisville (1.28:1), Anthony Edwards (1.18:1), or even Victor Oladipo (0.72:1). But none of these players are point guards. The closest is Donovan Mitchell, who only recently, in his fifth year in the league, was able to tamp down the turnovers. Even that, however, was with a dedicated point guard beside him. If you draft Ivey to be a lead guard, it is reasonable to expect growing pains, not unlike Oladipo’s first few years in Orlando.
46.9% - Jaden Ivey’s free throw rate is 46.9%, which indicates that for every two shots he takes, Ivey shoots a free throw. This is fairly high in the top-50 eligible draft picks, only noted foul magnets Tari Eason (51.5%), EJ Liddell (53.4%), and Jake LaRavia (52.9%) come close. To add to this, all of these players are forwards listed 6’8” or above. His ability to get into the lane almost whenever he wants leads to problems for defenses who were often able to play off non-shooting threats in Zach Eady and Trevion Williams.
The more you watch Ivey and scrutinize his decision-making, the more you see how much room for growth there is in his reads and passing delivery. There are numerous ugly turnovers that come from him not being able to process situations fast enough to keep up with his body. He seems to play too fast at times which itself can cause turnovers and even ruin what advantages he may have made earlier.
Last tidbidts - among 2022 NCAA Basketball players, Ivey was in the 81st percentile in scoring off-screens, in the 89th percentile off DHOs, and in the 70th percentile off cuts. Impressive stuff despite the on-ball gaffes.
The Sell in One Possession
What can you say here? This is an excellent example of Ivey’s ability to make something out of nothing. He leaps to grab the inbounds pass at the top of the key, goes right-left on the dribble, then pushes left, sees the defender mirroring, and counters with a lethally-quick spin to his right hand before a long scoop layup. Rarely do you see players with the tools to show off the ball-handling, athleticism, and soft touch while creating something out of nothing.
How Does Ivey Fit on the Kings?
I have to ask myself this all the time, but more often than not I have to ask myself why I’m even asking this. The Kings need talent, full stop. If Jaden Ivey is on the board at 4, and the presumed other top four of Smith, Banchero, and Holmgren are off, then the Kings cannot afford to draft for anything other than outright talent. You develop your players as best as you can, and if there are fit issues or you need to clear minutes because one player is so good, you make changes. Simply put, the Kings cannot afford to draft for fit.
There are key questions here, namely how Ivey fits around Fox and Sabonis. Ivey shoots just 35% on catch-and-shoot opportunities and 29% on two-point shots that aren’t at the rim. However, that isn’t the whole story: a vast majority of those two-point shots were unassisted, meaning he was most likely in an isolation situation. Further, Ivey shot 37% (35.8% overall) on assisted 3-point shots and was assisted on 60.9% of his makes.
He’s shown the ability to move purposefully off-ball, and score on those plays, shooting a strong 49% off screens. These possessions seem to force him to control how fast he’s going, giving him just a split second longer to process defenses and make decisions under more control; controlling speed and improving decision-making will be essential to his success early on.
Then there’s the on-ball defense, which like most non-Davion rookies, is lacking. He got cooked by Johnny Davis, who used his guile, strength, footwork, and strong mid-range ability to get shots in the midrange whenever he wanted.
I think Ivey could be effective around Fox and Sabonis. These two players often command double teams at their best. Ivey doesn’t need to be an elite shooter, he just needs to be decent enough for a defense to worry if he moves off-ball.
If the Kings can set him up and let him loose in the full court, I think Ivey and Fox can be a solid backcourt. It requires careful balancing on offense, off-ball plays run for Ivey to keep him engaged on both ends of the court, and a diet of at-rim opportunities in both half-court and full-court situations.
Conclusion
Jaden Ivey isn’t the ideal draft prospect. His defensive effort ebbs and flows, his on-ball decision-making can be haphazard at times, and while his shooting from three and at the rim have improved massively, he isn’t the point guard prospect people might think he is from highlight tapes.
However, I think Ivey is more along the lines of a Donovan Mitchell, provided things pan out well-enough. His speed forces defenses to bend like wheat in the wind, and his flashes of touch, tough shot-making, and reported gym rat tendencies make me think he has every bit the potential of the other players at the top of the draft. It comes down to a question of how low the floor is and whether he can develop pace to his game like De’Aaron Fox has.
Thanks for reading The Mid Post. Want me to eat crow in five years? See my 2022 NBA Draft Big Board.
-Alvin